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India-China standoff: India’s maritime edge in Indian Ocean

YB WEB DESK. Dated: 7/8/2020 2:21:59 PM

New Delhi, July 7 The Indian Navy has developed an adequate capability to effectively monitor as well as deter the movement of the PLA Navy ships and subs into the Indian Ocean through these choke points. The Indian political leadership has categorically stated that it will not accept any violation of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by China and China on its part, despite diplomatic parleys and military commander level discussions, does not seem inclined to disengage and revert to the status quo in Ladakh The Indian political leadership has categorically stated that it will not accept any violation of the Line of Actual Control(LAC) by China and China on its part, despite diplomatic parleys and military commander level discussions, does not seem inclined to disengage and revert to the status quo in Ladakh. In fact, from the satellite imagery and media sources, it appears that China, instead of disengaging, is in fact consolidating its position by augmenting its infrastructure and military presence not only in the Galwan Valley or at the Pangong Tso lake but is also doing so at many places along the disputed 4000 km LAC. This is not the first time that China has transgressed the LAC and this definitely won’t be the last. However, this time the scale and scope of the transgression is far more grave. Not since 1967 have Chinese and Indian troops clashed and the loss of 20 Indian soldiers in the clash of 15 June 2020 has not gone down well in the country. It appears that China ‘s actions this time seem to have been triggered by a combination of many factors, not least among them being the economic and strategic importance of this region to China over the next few years while also simultaneously sending a message to India that there is only one Asian power and this is China’s century (and not Asia’s as India likes to project). It will therefore not tolerate any resistance to its larger strategic ambition of global dominance. However, be that as it may, India has to pragmatically weigh its options on how to restore the status quo. The Armed Forces have been placed on high alert and like any professional military force are ready for any eventuality depending on the directions of the political leadership. The question therefore uppermost on people’s minds is how will India respond? A diplomatic solution will be the ideal way out of this predicament with both countries respecting each other’s claims and disengaging to their earlier positions. However, given our penchant for nationalist jingoism, such a move will prompt the politicians and the media to crow that China wilted under Indian pressure and claim it as a victory. The Indian political leadership, already facing headwinds at home with the pandemic and the economy being two major concerns, can ill afford to be seen as weak either internationally or at home. The Chinese President, Xi Jinping is in perhaps a worse predicament because as he is facing increasing international opprobrium for the global spread of the Wuhan virus and the push back to his dream project, the Belt and Road Initiative, both of which are severely denting the aura of invincibility he has projected to his own people about the country and himself. War is not a suitable option for either India or China as neither can afford a distraction from their focus on economic development. However, in an escalatory situation where war could become a possibility, the involvement of the maritime domain is a certainty. The PLA Navy is the second most powerful navy in the world after the US Navy and would definitely not be a bystander in the event of an escalation. However, the PLA Navy presently lacks adequate capacity as well as capability to challenge the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean. It is therefore unlikely that China would like to engage militarily with India in the Indian Ocean unless the movement of its energy and trade, a large part of which passes through the Indian Ocean is directly threatened. India , on the other hand, would perhaps seek to disrupt this to constrain the Chinese war effort. The Indian Ocean, where the Indian Navy is the predominant maritime power is unique in that access to and from this Ocean is through choke points, of which the Malacca Straits which connects the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific is perhaps the most important. China is particularly sensitive to the criticality of the Malacca Straits because it is through this passage that most of its trade and energy traverses. In fact, one of the primary reasons for China seeking direct access over land to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar and Pakistan is to address what it calls its Malacca Dilemma. South of the Malacca Straits lie the Lombok and SundaStraits which are also navigable and offer alternate routes but there are constraints. It is therefore critical for China to ensure that these critical Sea Lines of Communication remain safe and open for its shipping. India, by virtue of its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and proximity to these Straits can monitor the movement of traffic to and fro, particularly the movement of any warships or submarines. It can also put pressure on the movement of merchant ships through these waters.